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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/15 10:57

   Grain Futures in the Red Again Midday Tuesday

   Corn is 6 to 8 cents lower on the front month, 16 to 18 cents lower on new 
crop; soybeans are 4 to 6 cents lower on the front month and 17 to 19 cents 
lower on new crop, and wheat is 6 to 19 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 170 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is narrowly mixed. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed 
with crude up $0.95. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold down $3.60.


   Corn trade is 6 to 8 cents lower on the front months and new crop is 16 to 
18 cents lower with broad ag commodity weakness. The forecast is still 
improving as the market shakes off short-term stress and a decline in 
conditions, while spread trade works on its second day of strength. Ethanol 
margins remain solid with the energy complex remaining elevated as corn pulls 
back and driving demand remaining good while concerns about biofuel policies 
remains in place. Brazil weather looks mostly unchanged short term as the crop 
advances toward harvest with some late rains while U.S. weather will be watched 
for consistency while heat will be the rule of many the next few days. Weekly 
crop conditions were 4% lower to 68% good to excellent and 5% poor to very 
poor, with 96% emerged versus 74% on average. Corn basis should remain flat to 
weaker near term with more attention going to new crop. On the July contract, 
trade has pulled below the 20-day at $6.65 with the overnight test failing, 
with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.27 as support.


   Soybeans are 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with new crop 17 to 19 cents lower 
with firmer spread trade and spillover from weaker grain markets on the back 
months. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 0.60 cent to 0.80 cent lower with the 
soy oil liquidation slowing. The weather pattern should allow for short-term 
stress to give way to rains, with conditions down 5% at 62% good to excellent 
and 8% poor to very poor, with 94% planted versus 88% on average, and 86% 
emerged versus 74% on average. South America should continue to see shipping 
progress short term, with U.S. basis soft with processors and exporters 
softening bids recently. On the July soybean chart, support is the fresh low at 
$14.55, with the lower Bollinger Band resistance at $14.72, which we have 
tested Tuesday morning.


   Wheat trade was 6 to 19 cents lower at midday with winter wheats the 
downside leader on spillover from corn and harvest pressure while spring wheat 
works to stabilize. The dollar is attempting to consolidate at over 90 points 
on the index, which, if sustained, will work to limit upside. Warmer weather 
this week should help to bring winter wheat along after the slowdown last week 
as early harvest is getting underway on the far Southern Plains with heading at 
92% headed, same as average, and harvest at 4% versus 15% on average, and good 
to excellent down 2% to 48% and 20% poor to very poor. Spring wheat 8% headed 
versus 6% on average, and good to excellent down 1% to 37% good to excellent, 
with 27% poor to very poor. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to 
be watched as well with little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK 
for now. KC continues at a 48-cent discount to Chicago widening a bit, with 
Minneapolis at an 83-cent premium. KC July on the chart has resistance the 
20-day at $6.28 with support at the lower Bollinger Band at $6.01.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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